The State Delta strategy
One formula turns your lead, the round, and the number of opponents into a single banking target. Protect a lead. Push a deficit. Never settle for a score that cannot win.
One equation, every game state
The equation first chooses a strategic posture—protect, hold, or chase—then changes its intensity using the size of the score gap, time remaining, and table pressure.
Try your game state
Move the controls. The recommendation updates instantly using the same State Delta equation as the Python simulator.
Recommended target
You are 500 points behind with six rounds left. The four-player pressure factor raises your target above the standard trailing baseline.
From equation to table
Each example follows the recommendation through actual rolls. Doubles after roll three double the pot; a seven would crash every player who has not banked.
A fixed 200 player would stop too early. The deficit justifies surviving for multiplier upside.
The formula accepts fewer points because preserving a 200-point cushion is worth more than chasing another double.
Banking 400 would guarantee defeat. In the final round, the formula refuses any target that cannot take the lead.
Simulation evidence
Balanced benchmark win rates from the Python simulator. Each policy faced the same opponent combinations with 200 games per matchup.
| Policy | 2 players | 4 players | 6 players |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fixed Pot 200 | 54.66% | 30.82% | 19.24% |
| Adaptive 150 / 200 / 300 | 65.28% | 48.63% | 40.56% |
| State Delta formula | 63.56% | 49.08% | 40.41% |